Macau’s Golden Week’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) is Estimated at MOP830 Million: J.P. Morgan

October 10, 2023 | Reveue

MACAU, SAR (October 9, 2023) — Macau’s daily average gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of October is estimated at MOP830 million (US$103 million), surpassing all previous records since the lifting of COVID restrictions, The Macau News Agency reported brokerage J.P. Morgan said.

Between 1 and 6 October, local casinos generated a daily average of over MOP930 million in gaming revenue, while from 7 to 8 October, the run-rate stood at MOP500 million.

In a Monday note, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li highlighted that the figure indicates an 80 per cent recovery in headline GGR compared to the National Day Golden Week in 2019.

This acceleration in recovery surpasses the 70 per cent mark achieved in the third quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, mass GGR has recovered to 110 to 120 per cent of 2019 levels, comfortably exceeding the buy-side expectations of a 100 per cent bar.

“In short, Macau’s Golden Week turned out to be pretty golden – much better than we and the market had feared,” the analysts added.

In recent weeks, stock pull-backs have led to a moderation in buy-side expectations, according to J.P. Morgan.

For Macau gaming stocks, the risk/reward ratio is shifting in a favourable direction, as the analysts observed significant value in these stocks that are currently trading at 10-percent free-cash yields and an average EV/EBITDA ratio of 9x (FY24E).

This is two standard deviations below their historical levels, and the brokerage believes that long-term investors can start to bottom-fish around these levels.