Analysts Forecast Suggests a Positive Trajectory in Macau’s Gaming Industry for December

MACAU, SAR (December 18, 2023) — Analysts at J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) forecast Gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 17 days of December could have reached MOP9 billion (US$1.11 billion), with a daily run-rate of MOP529 million,

Here is a summary of the forecast key points:

1. December Forecast: J.P. Morgan Securities predicts that the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for the first 17 days of December could reach MOP9 billion (US$1.11 billion), with a daily run-rate of MOP529 million. This is consistent with the November run-rate.
2. November Performance: Macau’s casino revenue for November decreased to MOP16.04 billion from the previous month, with October having the highest level, attributed to the Golden Week holidays.
3. Recent Momentum: The analysts note a positive trend, with last week’s figures climbing to MOP542 million per day, compared to the previous MOP520 million, indicating a brewing momentum.
4. GGR Analysis: J.P. Morgan’s analysis suggests that mass GGR is running at around 100% of pre-pandemic levels, slightly lower than the “100%+” levels observed in recent months. VIP GGR, involving high-end gamblers, is currently at “mid-to-high-teens” levels due to “poor luck.”
5. Full-Month Expectation: The analysts expect the full-month GGR to reach approximately MOP17 billion as the month progresses, resulting in a daily run-rate of around MOP550 million.
6. Quarterly Performance: If the forecast holds true, the fourth quarter of the year could see an 8% increase in GGR quarter-on-quarter, with the mass segment performing slightly better with a 9% hike.
7. EBITDA Projection: The positive trend in GGR is expected to drive an 8 to 10% increase in EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) compared to the previous quarter, surpassing the “historical seasonality of +5% growth quarter on quarter” before the Covid-19 pandemi

In summary, the forecast suggests a positive trajectory in Macau’s gaming industry for December, with potential growth in GGR and EBITDA compared to the previous quarter, despite some challenges in the VIP segment.

SOURCE: LI Contributor.