Citigroup Expects the Macau Gaming Sector to See 1Q 2024 Reaching MOP 16.3 Billion

MACAU, SAR (April 12, 2024) — Citigroup expects the Macau gaming sector to see a mere 2 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in industry EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) in the first quarter of 2024, reaching US$2.02 billion (MOP 16.3 billion), despite a 6 percent increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) recorded in the first three months of this year compared with the last quarter of 2023.

Analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung said in a Thursday update that this reflects the negative operating leverage caused by unfavourable hold, particularly in February.

Citigroup’s first-quarter industry EBITDA forecast implies an 81 percent EBITDA recovery compared to the 2019 level.

The analysts noted that SJM comes out on top with an 18 percent quarter-on-quarter EBITDA improvement, and the EBITDA boost will ‘largely be driven by the continued ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace’.

MGM China is predicted to have the second-best quarter-on-quarter EBITDA improvement, reflecting its market share gains during the quarter.

Citigroup highlighted that MGM China will enjoy a technological advantage over its competitors for most of 2024, due to its early adoption of smart gaming tables and its more aggressive player marketing efforts.

Galaxy is expected to report net revenue of HKD 10.2 billion and generate a flat quarter-on-quarter adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.8 billion, impacted by disruptions from renovation works at Galaxy Macau’s Mass concourse before the Chinese New Year Golden Week.

The analysts expressed that Sands suffered from some unfavourable hold rates during the quarter, which dragged down its EBITDA for the quarter to US$16 million.

Wynn Resorts is predicted to report revenue of US$1.0 billion for Macau operations and property EBITDA of US$319 million, implying an 83 percent EBITDA recovery compared to the 2019 level.

Melco is likely to report revenue of US$1.1 billion and adjusted property EBITDA of US$318 million, indicating a 78 percent EBITDA recovery to the pre-Covid level.

SOURCE: Macau News Agency (MNA).