Macau’s September Gross Gaming Revenue Likely to Recede Amid Reduced Demand and Bad Weather – J.P. Morgan

MACAU, SAR (Septembber 13, 2023) — Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is anticipated to experience a month-on-month decrease of 15 to 20 per cent in September, amounting to a range of MOP14 billion to 14.5 billion (US$1.74 billion), Macau News Agency (MNA) reported brokerage J.P. Morgan said.

This decrease is attributed to seasonality and adverse weather conditions during the first ten days of the month.

In a Monday update, analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li highlighted that the projected figure implies a daily GGR range of MOP465 to 480 million, which falls below the consensus expectation of MOP525 million at the beginning of the month.

Based on their checks, daily GGR for the first 10 days of September is estimated at MOP430 million, given the significant impact of extreme weather, namely a super typhoon in the first week of September and heavy rainstorms in the subsequent week.

All gaming venues in Macau temporarily closed their doors for several hours during early this month as a precautionary measure against the threat of Super Typhoon Saola, prompted by an executive order issued by the authorities.

J.P. Morgan said that it had recently adopted a more cautious stance on the Macau gaming sector, citing the potential fatigue in the consensus upgrade cycle as the industry approaches the end of the seasonality-driven demand upcycle.

“Valuation is still very attractive (hence we stay ‘long-term bullish’) but a lack of catalysts and positive surprises mean the stocks could remain volatile near-term, ” the analysts said.

For the upcoming National Day Golden Week, the analysts expressed confidence that rooms at local casino resorts will once again be completely booked, following the historical trend.

However, the key question is centered around “who will be staying there and how much they’ll play”.

SOURCE: Macau News Agency (MNA).